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Monday, March 16, 2020

Like watching a slow-motion train crash

It has been obvious to me for some time that the Covid-19 crisis unfolding in Italy was likely to unfold in the same way here if we did not take the measures of social distancing that other countries have been taking.  Today the government announced that they are advising people to self isolate if anyone in their family has a high temperature or persistent cough, and that we should not gather in pubs, clubs and theatres.

They didn't do anything useful to those business owners like closing the pubs, clubs and theatres so that the owners could claim on insurance.  They just told us not to go there, ok?

It was after the press conference that people posted information on twitter that suggested the government's modelling team had been surprised by the speed with which this virus has spread.  It appears that they have used viral pneumonia in their models, rather than the known variables for Covid-19.  And surprise!  Their model didn't follow the pattern of infection that has been noticed in other countries.

They are now acting to add social distancing, but still not testing people in the community, in contravention of the advice from WHO, who say that testing and contact tracing are the only way to stop the virus.  They haven't closed the schools, saying that it is a mild illness in children.  Of course, those children will be free to infect everyone in their families as people appear to be asymptomatic when they are first infectious, a few days before they develop symptoms.

I had assumed the lack of testing was related to a lack of testing kits, and maybe this is the case.  It seems very strange then that a manufacturer of kits in England and northern Ireland (Novacyt) tweeted that he had the capability to make 3.5 million kits but hadn't had any orders placed by NHS England.

The people most in need of kits for testing are the nurses and doctors who are on the frontline for the treatment of the virus.  It was reported that nurses and doctors who fall ill are being asked to continue to work in some areas and self-isolate in others, without any testing unless they fell ill enough to warrant admission to hospital. 

This is not a sustainable choice.  Without testing, doctors and nurses will either be at home for 14 days unnecessarily, or working with patients and putting them and their friends and families at risk. 

That they are at risk is not under discussion, but the powers that be have recently downgraded the sort of protective equipment a nurse or doctor has to wear when dealing with Covid-19 patients, to what they have in the cupboard. A situation which people are very unhappy with.  And who could blame them.

The procurement procedures being followed at the moment are bizarre in the extreme.  The UK needs ventilators very urgently, and the government said that they had been discussing with Rolls Royce the possibility that they could turn their production lines over to making ventilators - an assertion that was denied on twitter and elsewhere by the company, who said the government had not talked to them. 

I fully expect to read soon that the leading UK manufacturer of ventilators hasn't been asked to supply any, so chaotic and inefficient is the story.

We should be producing hand sanitizer, protective equipment and masks, ventilators, testing kits in very large numbers NOW if we are going to be properly equipped for the catastrophic increase in numbers that can be expected after the disastrous handling of the crisis.  I am very worried that they have let the genie out of the bottle, and no amount of social distancing at this delay of time will put it back in the bottle.

They still haven't addressed the point that there are a lot of people in our society - the self-employed and those on low hours or zero hours contracts - who cannot afford to self-isolate, as instructed.  That there are people who live week to week on their wages and have no savings and nothing to fall back on. They definitely need to do something about that, so that people can afford to self-isolate, before the UK becomes Italy and we are overwhelmed.

They haven't shut schools, saying that children aren't at risk.  Their parents are, though, and their teachers.  And as they may be asymptomatic they will probably infect their parents who will then have to self isolate.  The delay in losing the workforce may not be very long, and it would be far better to close the schools and slow the spread even further.

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